Dollar Dollar: Symptomatic for cash pivot
Greenback just touched for three and a half years under the euro and reached $ 1.1754 per euro. The person in question? American macroeconomic indicators that run out of steam. The last Friday report revealed an unexpected decline in consumer expenditure in the United States, which means that the economy slows down. Employment data do not help: unemployment benefits have reached the highest level from November 2021.
Inflation remains in parallel, leaving the field open to Jerome Powell to reduce rates without affecting the credibility of the Fed. His recent intervention before the congress, which he considered helpful, strengthened this feeling. Political speculation would be added to this: Sources near the White House would suggest that Donald Trump would plan to replace Jerome Powell before the end of his mandate. Such a decision, even unofficial, would undermine the Fed authority and emphasize the distrust of the US currency.
In this climate, cash and institutional uncertainty could appear as an alternative value. As the real decrease in the dollar decreases, investors are looking for more decorated assets of public policies. Bitcoin by its decentralized nature would offer refuge in the face of what some perceive as a “monetary weapon”: freezing reserves of sanctioned countries stimulated a global distrust of the system marked in dollars. If this dynamics were strengthened, Bitcoin’s thesis could regain credibility as numerical value reserves.
Is BTC ready?
If the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation effectively favored the sustainable weakening of the dollar, it would still be necessary for Bitcoin to be prepared to take over the role of refuge. At this stage, however, correlation of BTC with Wall Street index, especially NASDAQ, would remain significant. During the recent stages of shares, bitcoin would show the same signs of weakness as risky assets, indicating the persistent sensitivity to appetite for the risk of investors.
Unlike gold, whose refuge status would be institutionalized and anchored for decades, Bitcoin would remain dependent on a speculative environment. And technically, market data confirms this voltage. Rect Capital recalls that the current correction at the discovery phase was one of the longest in the history of Bitcoins, which would require further repetitions to be much shorter if the BTC wanted to watch three bulls like in 2013 or 2017.
According to history, the correction of the discovery of prizes that Bitcoin has experienced in recent months has been very long
Which is that further correction of price discovery will have to be much shorter if BTC is to enjoy three prizes to discover upstrrends (green)$ Btc #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/lgmstfdqfa
– Rect Capital (@kectcapital) 27th June 2025
Abbot Case, on the other hand, notes the presence of massive sales walls between $ 108,000 and $ 110,000. As long as this barrier jumps, Bitcoin could be blocked under its peaks. Rejection to $ 105,000 is possible if these sales orders are not only spoofing : Typical manipulation tactics on markets that are not very regulated as cryptos.
$ Btc It has strong sales walls between $ 108,000- $ 110,000.
Meanwhile, there are strong offers around $ 105,000.
Now there are 2 scenarios:
BTC is canceled at $ 105,000 before hitting a new ATH.
Now the walls of sales are only spoofes and as BTC pumps, they will be removed.
In … pic.twitter.com/eznsrvz6gg
– Abbot Case (@cas_abbe) 27th June 2025
Dragonfly, on its part, emphasizes the existence and Flag On the daily chart. BTC oscillates in the horizontal compression area, with weak volumes and whales that have exhausted investors. “The Bull Break in this flag would be necessary for re -re -re -re -re -re -refrigeration. The level of $ 126,000, in the Fibonacci 0.618, would be a natural goal from which it was to beat the above number.
For a positive scenario, the price must break the flag up. Whales went too far in exhausting investors. 🧐 pic.twitter.com/v5i9ajgrjf
– Dragonfly (@flywithdf) 27th June 2025
Finally, Glassnode alerts to a continuous decline Financing rates and 3 months rolling For permanent contracts: Despite strong activities in the future, long positions become more rare. This would indicate a short loss of trust, with actors who are more cautious, even more neutral.
Financing rats for $ Btc And the rolling base continues to be trend. Despite the high future activity, the taste for a long exhibition disappears, reflecting the deposit and possibly a neutral or short -term location. pic.twitter.com/zwwwv65eiy
– Glassnode (@glassnode) 27th June 2025
Moral of History: When the dollar sneezes, Bitcoin pulls out the thermometer … But he still has no gold vaccine!
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